Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the country and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. They composes two pieces that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
