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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward script. It commonly acts as a kind of mea culpa. We regret we misjudged your squad in our pre-campaign predictions.

On paper, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the largest resurgence wins the award. In practice, it sparks an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent leadership or simply the biggest shock.

Yet the current field is distinctly unique. The group of nominees is unusually strong. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning conference winners falling away and recent also-rans improving collectively. In an typical year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in this chaotic and thrilling season, he's competing with multiple other outstanding candidates.

Below is how the hypothetical vote should look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore quarterbacks. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper system, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to display his otherworldly talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent dominance. With Johnson, Williams has become more decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan rather than improvising. It is an offense built entirely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a steady dose of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that frees wide receiver targets consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been able to create magic from broken plays.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive vision. Almost each bet – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has worked. This is rare for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the organization with the level of pressure Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a scheme dork but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a ordinary year, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. But the current is not a normal season!

The area where Johnson's case runs a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is established for sustained success. However Johnson falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has engineered a rapid turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall football of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has mastered the leadership aspects, which was not a given after his early public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching cocktail of youth and experience, he bet on newbies. Starting with the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. But he has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

After an early strong start, there was a chance that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year setback had the team wobbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking reliable ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are evident. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a different signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the season in October. Instead, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has fallen away since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him just one place ahead of other QBs.

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